Weekend Precedent: College Football | Week 7 - Five of the Top Seven Fell in One Saturday

The Weekend Precedent: College Football

For college football news and my thoughts on it, catch the latest video available every Wednesday night on the Precedent Media YouTube channel.

A quick note on the numbers. Every team rank in this article comes from The Precedent Ratings, which count each team’s wins, losses and its opponents’ records, with the AP Poll used only for comparison. Teams with the same rating share a rank. Statistics use FBS-vs-FBS games only, and early in the season many teams are still tied, so read the lower ranks loosely.

Weekend Recap

Eight teams ranked in the AP Poll lost this weekend, including five of the top seven: No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Notre Dame, No. 5 Indiana, No. 6 Alabama and No. 7 Texas. It was the first time in the poll’s history that five of its top seven lost on the same regular-season day. Seven of the eight were in The Precedent’s top 25 entering the week, among them #1 Alabama, #3 Texas and #5 Indiana. Four of the eight lost as favorites to teams that won outright.

By the numbers

59 games played, the most of any week this season
Home teams won 33 of 59 (56 percent), against a season average of 63 percent
27 one-score games (46 percent; the season average is 37 percent)
50.8 points per game, combined
6 unbeaten teams remain, down from 9 a week ago
2 teams are still winless
15 games were won by the team trailing at halftime, and 9 by the team trailing entering the fourth quarter

Auburn 27, Georgia 24

Georgia led 14-7 after the first quarter, then Auburn scored the next 17 points to lead 17-14 at halftime and 24-14 after three. Georgia tied it in the fourth, but Gunner Stockton fumbled with under a minute left and Alex McPherson won it with a 34-yard field goal as time expired. Auburn was a 19.5-point underdog, tied for the largest upset of the weekend by the line. Georgia fell from #7 to a tie for #17 in The Precedent Ratings and from #1 to #5 in the AP Poll. Auburn rose from #37 to a tie for #23 and has the fourth-toughest remaining schedule in the country.

BYU 28, Notre Dame 24

BYU led after every quarter: 7-3, 21-10 at halftime and 21-16 after three. Bear Bachmeier, who ran for two touchdowns and caught another, threw the go-ahead touchdown to Walker Lyons with 1:47 left, and Notre Dame’s last pass from the BYU 9 fell incomplete. BYU won outright as a 10.5-point home underdog. It moved from #9 to #1 in The Precedent Ratings, at 0.556, and from #8 to #2 in the AP Poll. Notre Dame slipped from #23 to #25 here and from #2 to #4 in the AP.

Ohio State 19, Indiana 15

Ohio State led 10-7 at halftime and 13-7 after three quarters in Bloomington. On fourth down in the final minute, Nick Marsh’s apparent go-ahead touchdown catch was ruled out of bounds, ending Indiana’s 22-game winning streak. Ohio State, a 3-point favorite, covered. Indiana moved from #5 to #4 in The Precedent Ratings, because its loss came against a 6-1 team, and fell from #5 to #6 in the AP. Ohio State rose from #30 to #19 here and from #4 to #3 in the AP.

Tennessee 26, Alabama 10

Tennessee led 9-0 after the first quarter and 12-10 at halftime, then shut Alabama out over the final two quarters. Tennessee was a 7.5-point underdog, and Alabama fell 23.5 points short of the line. It was Alabama’s second straight loss, and it dropped from #1 to #10 in The Precedent Ratings and from #6 to #13 in the AP. Tennessee rose from #37 to #22 here and from #14 to #11 in the AP.

Florida 27, Texas 24

Texas led 10-0 after one quarter and 17-10 at halftime. Florida tied it 17-17 in the third quarter and outscored Texas 10-7 in the fourth, winning as an 11.5-point underdog with its backup quarterback, Tramell Jones Jr., starting. It was Texas’s second straight loss. Texas fell from #3 to #8 in The Precedent Ratings and from #7 to #19 in the AP. Florida moved from #15 to #12 and into the AP Poll at #20.

Miami (FL) 43, Florida State 35 (2OT)

Florida State led 21-14 after three quarters, and the game was tied 28-28 at the end of regulation. Malachi Toney caught the winning touchdown in the second overtime, one of his two scores, and Darian Mensah threw for 326 yards. Miami was a 20.5-point favorite and fell 12.5 points short of the line. It stays #2 in The Precedent Ratings and moved from #3 to #1 in the AP Poll.

LSU 31, Mississippi State 0

LSU led 21-0 at halftime and 31-0 after three quarters, against a Mississippi State team playing without its starting quarterback and starting running back. Sam Leavitt threw four touchdowns. LSU covered a 17.5-point line, rose from #18 to #9 in The Precedent Ratings and from #22 to #18 in the AP. Mississippi State fell from #8 to #26 here and out of the AP Poll.

Ole Miss 31, Missouri 3

Ole Miss led 21-3 at halftime and did not allow a point after the first quarter. As a 5.5-point favorite, it covered by 22.5. Ole Miss jumped from #34 to #15 in The Precedent Ratings and from #9 to #7 in the AP. Missouri fell from #12 to a tie for #23 here and from #13 to #22 in the AP.

Other results: Houston led 28-17 after three quarters and held off Oklahoma State 35-32, moving from #14 to #3 in The Precedent Ratings. Kentucky trailed Oklahoma 13-7 entering the fourth quarter, scored the last 14 points and won 21-13 as a 6.5-point underdog. Kentucky is #5. UCLA beat Wisconsin 17-7 to stay unbeaten, and Texas Tech beat Arizona State 53-25. Utah won 27-24 at Colorado but did not cover a 14.5-point line. Charlotte beat Temple 38-31, also as a 19.5-point underdog.

The biggest deficits overcome, measured at the end of a quarter

UAB over East Carolina, 30-17 (OT), after trailing by 11
Appalachian State over Coastal Carolina, 35-32, after trailing by 10
Florida over Texas, 27-24, after trailing by 10
Kansas State over Kansas, 35-24, after trailing by 10
New Mexico over Hawaii, 21-10, after trailing by 10
Rutgers over Maryland, 37-30, after trailing by 10

Teams that trailed entering the fourth quarter and won

Oregon over Nebraska (down 8)
West Virginia over Cincinnati (down 7)
Miami (FL) over Florida State (down 7)
Kentucky over Oklahoma (down 6)
UAB over East Carolina (down 5)
Air Force over UNLV (down 4)
New Mexico over Hawaii (down 3)
San Diego State over Fresno State (down 1)
Northwestern over Michigan State (down 1)

Of the 59 games with a line, favorites won 41 and covered 27, and three games pushed.

Underdogs that won outright

Auburn over Georgia, 27-24 (19.5)
Charlotte over Temple, 38-31 (19.5)
Florida over Texas, 27-24 (11.5)
BYU over Notre Dame, 28-24 (10.5)
San Diego State over Fresno State, 26-23 (7.5)
Tennessee over Alabama, 26-10 (7.5)
Tulane over Memphis, 31-17 (7.0)
Ball State over Bowling Green, 32-31 (6.5)
Boston College over Pittsburgh, 27-21 (6.5)
Kentucky over Oklahoma, 21-13 (6.5)
Arkansas over Vanderbilt, 31-21 (6.0)
Rutgers over Maryland, 37-30 (5.5)
TCU over Baylor, 17-6 (5.5)
UAB over East Carolina, 30-17 (5.5)
Washington over Purdue, 38-26 (3.5)
Missouri State over Kennesaw State, 24-21 (3.0)
North Carolina over Duke, 24-20 (3.0)
Middle Tennessee over Delaware, 33-30 (1.5)

Favorites that fell furthest short of the line

Temple, favored by 19.5, lost by 7 (26.5 short)
Alabama, favored by 7.5, lost by 16 (23.5 short)
Georgia, favored by 19.5, lost by 3 (22.5 short)
Memphis, favored by 7.0, lost by 14 (21.0 short)
East Carolina, favored by 5.5, lost by 13 (18.5 short)

Favorites that beat the line by the most

Army, favored by 2.5 over Florida Atlantic, won by 32 (29.5 better)
Ohio, favored by 15.5 over Sacramento State, won by 41 (25.5 better)
Texas State, favored by 14.0 over Colorado State, won by 39 (25.0 better)
Louisiana, favored by 3.0 over Troy, won by 27 (24.0 better)
Wake Forest, favored by 10.0 over California, won by 34 (24.0 better)

Rankings Talk

Biggest gap with the AP Poll

Utah is #10 in the AP Poll and #43 in The Precedent Ratings. It is 6-0 with an average scoring margin of +20.0 per game, seventh-best in the country, but its five FBS opponents are a combined 8-18: Arkansas, Utah State, Iowa State, Kansas and Colorado. That is the 111th-ranked schedule so far, and Utah’s 27-24 win at a 1-4 Colorado this week pulled its rating down.

Oregon is #5 in The Precedent Ratings and outside the AP top 25. It is 4-2, with an average scoring margin of just +2.8, but its five FBS opponents are a combined 23-6, the toughest schedule any team has played. Its losses came to Oklahoma State and unbeaten UCLA, and its wins include Boise State, USC and, this week, Nebraska.

The ratings keep spreading out. There are now 99 distinct ratings among 138 teams, up from 88 a week ago, and 10 teams remain at 0.000, down from 14. BYU leads at 0.556, with Miami (FL) at 0.500 and Houston at 0.495 behind it.

The week’s story is how many of the top teams lost, and to whom. Five of The Precedent’s top eight entering the weekend lost: #1 Alabama, #3 Texas, #5 Indiana, #7 Georgia and #8 Mississippi State. The ratings measure a team’s record against the records of the teams it played, so the losses landed very differently. Indiana lost to a 6-1 Ohio State and moved up a spot, to #4. Alabama lost to Tennessee and fell nine spots. Georgia lost at home to a 4-2 Auburn and fell ten. Even so, the AP and The Precedent now agree on 20 of their 25 ranked teams.

Biggest risers

BYU, #9 to #1: It beat a Notre Dame team that was 6-0, and its opponents’ combined record went from 8-10 to 15-12.
TCU, #111 to #71: It beat Baylor 17-6 as a 5.5-point underdog, and its earlier opponents North Carolina and Arkansas State both won.
SMU, #81 to #39: It beat Virginia 23-13, and its opponents’ combined record went from 5-13 to 11-17.
Boston College, #107 to #70: It beat Pittsburgh 27-21 as a 6.5-point underdog.
Rutgers and Ball State: Each picked up its first win that counts in the ratings and moved off 0.000.

Biggest fallers

Alabama, #1 to #10: It lost its second straight game, 26-10 at Tennessee.
Mississippi State, #8 to #26: It lost 31-0 at LSU.
Nebraska, #15 to #36: It lost 17-14 at Oregon after leading entering the fourth quarter.
Wisconsin, #11 to #26: It lost 17-7 at UCLA.
Texas, #3 to #8: It lost its second straight game, 27-24 at home to Florida.
Baylor, #25 to #51: It lost 17-6 to TCU as a 5.5-point favorite.

Clemson is #28 in The Precedent Ratings but #96 in scoring margin, at -6.4 points per game. New Mexico has the fourth-best scoring margin in the country, +22.4 per game, but sits at #93 because it has played the second-easiest schedule.

Oregon, James Madison and North Dakota State are all in The Precedent’s top 17, and none of them is in the AP top 25. The longest line on the chart belongs to Utah, #10 in the AP and #43 in The Precedent Ratings.

The Rankings

Teams with the same rating share a rank and are listed alphabetically.

CFB Ratings 2026-27 Week 7

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The SEC is still the top-rated conference, though its rating slipped from 0.381 to 0.369. The Big 12 moved up a spot to tie the Big Ten for #2, both at 0.319.

The full Precedent Ratings, with every conference’s standings and every team’s schedule, are attached for subscribers.

Loose Ends

Georgia, Alabama and Texas all lost on the same day for the first time since 1996, and the AP’s top two lost on the same day for the first time since 2012.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin is expected to miss several weeks with a throwing-shoulder injury; true freshman Luke Fahey replaced him against Indiana.
Four games went to overtime: UAB over East Carolina (30-17), Ball State over Bowling Green (32-31), Miami (FL) over Florida State (43-35, two overtimes) and Buffalo over UMass (25-18).
The College Football Playoff is reported to be nearing a deal to expand to 24 teams starting in 2027, with a handshake agreement with ESPN on the broadcast. No formal approval has been announced, and conference championship games could be affected by the extra week the format needs.
Oregon has played the toughest schedule so far. All five of the toughest remaining schedules belong to SEC teams, led by Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Arkansas.
James Madison is 7-0, #14 in The Precedent Ratings and has the second-easiest remaining schedule.
Six teams are still unbeaten: BYU, James Madison, Miami (FL), Texas Tech, UCLA and Utah.