Week 8 - Ole Miss Visits Texas Atop a Stacked Saturday

The Weekend Viewing Guide: College Football

For college football news and my thoughts on it, catch the latest video available every Wednesday night on the Precedent Media YouTube channel.

If you can only spare one window, make it Saturday Early. Its Avg. Game Rank of 4.0 is the best of the weekend by a wide margin, and all four of its games kick off at 11:00 AM: LSU at Auburn, Indiana at Michigan, Pittsburgh at Miami (FL) and Texas Tech at Cincinnati. Saturday Evening is next at 9.0, and it has the Game of the Week.

A quick note on the numbers. Every team rank in this guide comes from The Precedent Ratings, with the AP Poll used only for comparison. The number in front of each game is its Game Rank, which orders the weekend’s games using both teams’ ratings. In each window, a lower Avg. Game Rank means a stronger slate. Only FBS-vs-FBS games are included, and all kickoff times are Central.

Game of the Week

Ole Miss (#15) at Texas (#8), Texas -3.5, over/under 53.5, Saturday 6:30 PM, ABC

The top game on the weekend’s board, and the two rankings see it the other way around. The AP Poll has Ole Miss at #7 and Texas at #19, while The Precedent Ratings have Texas seven spots ahead. Both have lost to Florida: Ole Miss 52-28, Texas 27-24. Ole Miss has won two in a row, and Texas has lost two straight. Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons is doubtful with an ankle injury, and running back Hollywood Smothers is questionable. Ole Miss has two starting offensive linemen, Terez Davis and Brycen Sanders, listed as questionable, and running back Kewan Lacy is probable.

Army has won two in a row and Tulsa one. Duke has lost two straight, and UMass has lost three. UMass and UConn have both lost to Miami (OH), each by three points or fewer: UMass 20-19, UConn 24-21.

Air Force has won four in a row, even without quarterback Liam Szarka, who is out for the season with a lower-leg injury; Evan Medders has taken over. Wyoming has won two straight. The two have a pair of common opponents: both beat Northern Illinois, Air Force 28-7 and Wyoming 41-23, and both lost to North Dakota State, Air Force 38-32 and Wyoming 28-0. NC State and Stanford have both lost to Wake Forest, NC State 38-14 and Stanford 57-3.

Miami (FL) and Texas Tech are both unbeaten with six straight wins, and their opponents, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, have each lost two in a row. Pittsburgh is without starting quarterback Mason Heintschel, who is out for the season with a torn ACL. LSU tight end Trey’Dez Green is off the availability report for the first time since his knee injury at Ole Miss and is expected to play at Auburn, while linebacker Whit Weeks remains out. Indiana comes in off a loss, and Michigan off a win.

BYU, unbeaten and the top team in The Precedent Ratings, has won six in a row and goes on the road right after beating #25 Notre Dame. UCF has lost two straight and is not expected to start quarterback Alonza Barnett III, who is recovering from a hamstring injury, so Keyone Jenkins would make his fifth straight start. Both have beaten TCU, BYU 17-10 and UCF 21-13. Alabama has lost two in a row, and Texas A&M lists five players as questionable, including receiver Mario Craver and defensive end Anto Saka. Both have played Kentucky: Alabama won 45-17, Texas A&M lost 31-21. Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor is questionable with a foot injury. Iowa and Minnesota have both beaten Michigan, Iowa 20-19 and Minnesota 20-14, and both beaten Washington, Iowa 41-24 and Minnesota 27-24. Kirk Ferentz has named Jeremy Hecklinski Iowa’s starting quarterback over a healthy Hank Brown.

Kentucky has won five in a row, and Vanderbilt has lost four straight. Arizona has won four straight and plays #11 Texas Tech next week. Arizona and Iowa State have two common opponents: both lost to BYU, Iowa State 24-10 and Arizona 28-17, and both beat West Virginia, Iowa State 45-42 and Arizona 52-31. USC has won two in a row, and Wisconsin comes in off a loss. Both have beaten Penn State, USC 31-23 and Wisconsin 24-20.

Utah is unbeaten with six straight wins, and Houston, #3 in The Precedent Ratings, has won four in a row, so one of those streaks ends Saturday night. New Mexico has won three straight and hosts North Dakota State.

By the Numbers

• Unbeaten teams: six teams are still unbeaten, and none of them play each other this weekend.
• Biggest line: Miami (FL) -19.5 over Pittsburgh.
• Closest lines: 1.5 points in three games, Duke at Virginia (Virginia -1.5), Army at Tulsa (Tulsa -1.5) and San Diego State at Colorado State (San Diego State -1.5).
• Highest total: 63.5, in North Texas at Navy and San Diego State at Colorado State.
• Lowest total: 39.5, Miami (OH) at Central Michigan.
• Longest active win streaks: James Madison has won seven in a row, the longest in the country. Among the games in this guide, Miami (FL), Texas Tech, BYU and Utah have each won six straight.

Sleeper of the Week

Tennessee (#22) at South Carolina (#65), South Carolina -2.5, over/under 50.5, Saturday 2:30 PM, ESPN, Disney+

This game sits 13th on the weekend’s board, buried in a crowded afternoon window. The Precedent Ratings put Tennessee 43 spots ahead of South Carolina, and the AP Poll has the Volunteers at #11 with the Gamecocks unranked, yet South Carolina is the home favorite.

Storyline to Watch

BYU (#1) at UCF (#62), BYU -6.5, over/under 43.5, Saturday 2:30 PM, Fox

BYU leads The Precedent Ratings and is #2 in the AP Poll after beating Notre Dame last week. Now it goes on the road to face a UCF team that has lost two straight. The Cougars have won six in a row, and they will be without running back LJ Martin. UCF is expected to go with Keyone Jenkins at quarterback again. The two have one common opponent, TCU, and both beat the Horned Frogs by seven or eight points.

Thanks for reading The Precedent. If you enjoyed this issue, share it with someone who would too.

Written by Bob Sloop

Thanks for reading The Precedent! This post is public so feel free to share it.