Florida Stands Alone as the Ratings Start to Sort Themselves

The Weekend Precedent: College Football

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Weekend Recap

The biggest game of the week was Ole Miss against LSU, sixth and ninth in the ratings, and it lived up to the billing. Around it, the weekend looked like this.

By the numbers

57 games were played between FBS teams
Home teams won 40 of them (70 percent), and two games were played at neutral sites
21 games (37 percent) were decided by one score
Combined scoring averaged 55.1 points per game
35 of the 138 FBS teams are still unbeaten, and seven are winless
10 games went to a team that trailed at halftime, and five went to a team that trailed entering the fourth quarter

Ole Miss 32, LSU 24

Ole Miss won as a three-point underdog
Trinidad Chambliss completed 33 of 48 passes for 363 yards and two touchdowns
His 14-yard touchdown run put Ole Miss ahead with 6:14 left
Ole Miss converted the two-point try on a JT Lindsey run, which made it an eight-point lead
Jaylon Braxton intercepted Sam Leavitt in the end zone to end LSU’s final drive

The eight-point lead meant LSU needed a touchdown and a two-point conversion just to tie. Lane Kiffin took the LSU job during last season’s playoffs and did not coach Ole Miss in them, so the game came with a storyline of its own.

Comebacks defined the weekend. Here are the biggest ones.

The biggest deficits overcome, measured at the end of a quarter

Cincinnati over Miami (OH), 35-31, trailed by 21
Jacksonville State over Georgia Southern, 31-27, trailed by 14
Vanderbilt over NC State, 35-31, trailed by 14
Mississippi State over South Carolina, 41-34, trailed by 13
Alabama over Florida State, 50-36, trailed by 11
Clemson over North Carolina, 28-20, trailed by 11

Teams that trailed entering the fourth quarter and won

Jacksonville State over Georgia Southern, down 10
Vanderbilt over NC State, down 10
Cincinnati over Miami (OH), down 7
Toledo over Temple, down 6, in overtime, 49-48
Clemson over North Carolina, down 2, after a lightning delay that lasted two and a half hours

Vanderbilt’s win earns a closer look. Freshman Jared Curtis threw for 277 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 64 more, and the Commodores still trailed 31-28 when NC State took over near its own goal line, facing fourth down with six seconds left. Dave Doeren said afterward that the plan was to take an intentional safety and run off as much clock as possible. It didn’t go that way. Quarterback C.J. Bailey was hit in the end zone by Vanderbilt’s Miles Capers and fumbled, and Cayden Daniels recovered it for a touchdown. The play was reviewed, the touchdown stood, and Vanderbilt won 35-31. How a team should handle that spot deserves more room than a paragraph, so I’ll take it up in Wednesday’s video.

The betting lines had a rough weekend. Favorites won 49 of the 57 games that had a line, but only 26 covered, and one game was a push.

Underdogs that won outright, largest line first

Kentucky over Texas A&M, 31-21, as a 16.5-point underdog
West Virginia over Virginia, 38-27, as a 10.5-point underdog
Mississippi State over South Carolina, 41-34, as a 4-point underdog
MTSU over Nevada, 27-20, as a 3.5-point underdog
East Carolina over Old Dominion, 20-17, as a 3-point underdog
Ole Miss over LSU, 32-24, as a 3-point underdog
Central Michigan over Wyoming, 24-10, as a 1.5-point underdog
James Madison over San Diego State, 26-13, as a 1.5-point underdog

Favorites that fell furthest short of the line

Texas A&M, 26.5 points short against Kentucky
Virginia, 21.5 points short against West Virginia
Missouri, 17.5 points short in a 27-17 win over Troy
Wyoming, 15.5 points short against Central Michigan
San Diego State, 14.5 points short against James Madison

Favorites that beat the line by the most

Northwestern, by 30.5 points, in a 41-7 win over Colorado
Connecticut, by 25.0 points, over Southern Mississippi
Iowa State, by 24.5 points, over Bowling Green
Liberty, by 21.5 points, over Ball State
Wisconsin, by 20.5 points, over Eastern Michigan

Rankings Talk

Three weeks in, the ratings are starting to separate teams.

There are now 33 distinct ratings across the 138 teams, up from 12 a week ago
44 teams are still at 0.000, down from 97
Florida is alone at No. 1 with a 0.667, and it is the only team above 0.500

That still leaves a lot of shared ranks, so the lower half of the list deserves a loose reading. The top is a different story.

Florida earned its spot in the week’s most entertaining game, a 44-39 win over Auburn that put 83 points on the board. Jon Sumrall, who came to Florida from Tulane, and Alex Golesh, who came to Auburn from South Florida, are both in their first seasons at their schools.

Jadan Baugh ran for 162 yards and three touchdowns
Florida’s other FBS win was a 66-21 rout of FAU
FAU and Auburn are both 2-1, a combined 4-2
Florida’s schedule so far is tied for the fifth toughest in the country

Behind Florida, tied at 0.500

BYU
Miami (FL)
Northwestern, which has played only one FBS game, a 41-7 win over Colorado
Texas

Conference movement, with last week’s rank in parentheses

SEC, first (sixth), rating up from 0.206 to 0.374, with a 32-8 record against FBS teams
Big Ten, second (first)
Independents, third (fifth)
ACC, fourth (second)
Big 12, fifth (third)
American, sixth (fourth)
Pac-12, seventh (ninth)
Mountain West, ninth (sixth)

The conference picture shows up in the top 25 too. Eight of the 26 teams come from the SEC and six from the Big Ten. No other conference has more than three, and the Mountain West, Conference USA, and Mid-American have none.

Biggest risers, all of whom started the week at 0.000

BYU, to 0.500
Notre Dame, to 0.429
Ole Miss, to 0.429
Kentucky, to 0.416
Louisville, to 0.400
UCF, to 0.400

Those jumps mostly reflect teams whose opponents now have records to count. The fallers are more revealing.

Biggest fallers

Indiana, from 0.500 to 0.167, still unbeaten, with FBS opponents North Texas and Western Kentucky combining for a 1-5 record
SMU, from 0.500 to 0.200, after losing to Louisville
Cincinnati, from 0.500 to 0.250, still unbeaten
UCLA, from 0.333 to 0.167, still unbeaten
FIU, from 0.334 to 0.190
Nebraska, from 0.333 to 0.200, still unbeaten

Louisville 41, SMU 31 produced the biggest single swing

Louisville went from 0.000 to 0.400 and now sits 11th
SMU went from 0.500 to 0.200 and now sits 66th

The biggest gaps between the ratings and the scoreboard run in both directions. Kentucky is 10th in the ratings and 89th in average margin, while Georgia is first in average margin and 95th in the ratings. Margin ranks below are among the 133 teams with at least two FBS games.

Rating rank is higher than margin rank

Marshall, 13th in the ratings, 102nd in average margin (-12.3)
Kentucky, 10th in the ratings, 89th in average margin (-9.0)
FAU, 22nd in the ratings, 96th in average margin (-10.3)
Stanford, 41st in the ratings, 114th in average margin (-19.0)
UTSA, 22nd in the ratings, 91st in average margin (-9.5)
California, 28th in the ratings, 89th in average margin (-9.0)
Louisiana, 21st in the ratings, 78th in average margin (-6.0)
Oklahoma State, 15th in the ratings, 71st in average margin (-3.0)

Rating rank is lower than margin rank

Georgia, 95th in the ratings, first in average margin (+39.0)
Nebraska, 66th in the ratings, second in average margin (+38.5)
Indiana, 78th in the ratings, third in average margin (+37.0)
Utah, 95th in the ratings, sixth in average margin (+33.0)
Tennessee, 95th in the ratings, eighth in average margin (+27.0)
Pittsburgh, 78th in the ratings, 18th in average margin (+21.3)
N.D. State, 86th in the ratings, 22nd in average margin (+17.7)
Nevada, 92nd in the ratings, 31st in average margin (+14.0)

Where the ratings and the AP poll disagree most

Eleven of the AP’s 25 teams are also in the top 25 of the ratings.

The AP ranks the team higher

Georgia, 2nd in the AP and 95th in the ratings
Tennessee, 14th and 95th
Utah, 15th and 95th
Indiana, 5th and 78th
SMU, 22nd and 66th
Texas A&M, 23rd and 62nd
Texas Tech, 11th and 41st
Ohio State, 7th and 36th

The ratings rank the team higher

Northwestern, not in the AP top 25 and 2nd in the ratings
Florida, 21st in the AP and 1st in the ratings
Kentucky, not in the AP top 25 and 10th in the ratings
UCF, not in the AP top 25 and 11th in the ratings
Marshall, not in the AP top 25 and 13th in the ratings
Oklahoma, not in the AP top 25 and 13th in the ratings
Michigan, 18th in the AP and 6th in the ratings
Duke, not in the AP top 25 and 15th in the ratings

Georgia shows the split most clearly.

3-0 overall, and the best average scoring margin in the country at +39.0
FBS wins over Western Kentucky (70-20) and Arkansas (45-17), whose combined FBS record is 0-5
Its remaining schedule is the fourth toughest in the country
Its next game is against Oklahoma, 13th in the ratings

Tennessee is at the same 0.000, and its FBS opponents, Georgia Tech and Kennesaw State, are a combined 0-4.

Texas A&M shows what a scoreboard can and can’t tell you. The Aggies are 2-1 and 62nd in the ratings, tied with Wake Forest, and their first game looked like a statement.

September 12, Texas A&M 48, Arizona State 20

A&M led 24-20 after three quarters, then outscored Arizona State 24-0 in the fourth
14 of those points came on interception returns, 55 yards by Marco Jones and 45 by Julio Humphrey
Arizona State outgained A&M 369 yards to 255

Since then

Arizona State beat Kansas 24-17 in London, in the inaugural Union Jack Classic at Wembley Stadium
Kentucky beat A&M 31-21 at Kyle Field, its first win over Texas A&M since 1953
The game was tied 7-7 at halftime, Kentucky scored 21 points in the third quarter, and A&M gained 20 yards in that quarter
Kentucky is 10th in the ratings, and its average scoring margin of -9.0 ranks 89th among the 133 teams with at least two FBS games

So how much should that first A&M game have told us? The ingredients are all here.

The Rankings

Teams with the same rating share a rank and are listed alphabetically. Five teams tie for 22nd, so the top 25 runs to 26 teams. Records shown are overall records. The full ratings for all 138 teams are in the PDF attached to this post.

Top 25 Teams

1. Florida (SEC), 3-0, 0.667
2. BYU (Big 12), 3-0, 0.500
2. Miami (FL) (ACC), 3-0, 0.500
2. Northwestern (Big Ten), 2-0, 0.500
2. Texas (SEC), 3-0, 0.500
6. Michigan (Big Ten), 3-0, 0.429
6. Notre Dame (Independents), 3-0, 0.429
6. Ole Miss (SEC), 3-0, 0.429
9. LSU (SEC), 2-1, 0.417
10. Kentucky (SEC), 2-1, 0.416
11. Louisville (ACC), 2-1, 0.400
11. UCF (Big 12), 2-1, 0.400
13. Marshall (Sun Belt), 2-1, 0.381
13. Oklahoma (SEC), 2-1, 0.381
15. Alabama (SEC), 3-0, 0.375
15. Duke (ACC), 3-0, 0.375
15. Maryland (Big Ten), 2-1, 0.375
15. Oklahoma State (Big 12), 2-1, 0.375
19. Michigan State (Big Ten), 2-1, 0.371
20. USC (Big Ten), 4-0, 0.364
21. Louisiana (Sun Belt), 2-1, 0.357
22. Auburn (SEC), 2-1, 0.334
22. FAU (American), 2-1, 0.334
22. Fresno State (Pac-12), 2-1, 0.334
22. Illinois (Big Ten), 2-1, 0.334
22. UTSA (American), 2-1, 0.334

Conferences

1. SEC - 32-8 - .800 - Rating 0.374
2. Big Ten - 31-12 - .721 - Rating 0.330
3. Independents - 4-1 - .800 - Rating 0.291
4. ACC - 22-18 - .550 - Rating 0.287
5. Big 12 - 21-11 - .656 - Rating 0.274
6. American - 13-19 - .406 - Rating 0.244
7. Pac-12 - 5-13 - .278 - Rating 0.196
8. Sun Belt - 10-19 - .345 - Rating 0.180
9. Mountain West - 8-15 - .348 - Rating 0.174
10. Conference USA - 5-18 - .217 - Rating 0.129
11. Mid-American - 6-23 - .207 - Rating 0.113

CFB Ratings - Week3

319 KB

Loose Ends

Texas Tech 28, Houston 26 was decided by two points, and the two teams are now tied for 41st in the ratings.
The best second halves so far, measured by points outscored after halftime in FBS games:
- Texas, +56
- LSU, +50
- Alabama, +48
- Penn State, +46
- Notre Dame, +45
- UCLA, +43
The worst second halves so far:
- UTEP, -56
- Miami (OH), -53
- Western Kentucky, -52
- Kent State, -49
- Ball State, -48
- Eastern Michigan, -44
UTEP has played the toughest schedule so far at 0.405, and it is 0-2 against FBS teams. Rice is second at 0.364, also 0-2.
Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Utah, and Utah State are tied for the easiest schedule so far, all at 0.000.
The toughest remaining schedules:
- Mississippi State, 0.367
- Oklahoma, 0.346
- Ole Miss, 0.339
- Georgia, 0.332
- Missouri, 0.328
All five of those teams are in the SEC. The ratings only count records, and the SEC has the best record against FBS teams at 32-8.
Rutgers, 0-3, has the sixth-toughest remaining schedule at 0.327.
The easiest remaining schedules:
- Massachusetts, 0.046
- Ohio, 0.052
- Louisiana, 0.060
- Connecticut, 0.061
- Toledo, 0.065
Only two teams have played four games and won them all, USC and North Dakota State.
Seven teams are still winless at 0-3, Bowling Green, Charlotte, Northern Illinois, Rutgers, ULM, Utah State, and Western Kentucky.

Looking Ahead

Here are the top 10 games for Week 4, ranked by the ratings, with each team’s ratings rank in parentheses. All times are Central.

Ole Miss (6) at Florida (1), Saturday, 2:30 PM
South Carolina (28) at Alabama (15), Saturday, 6:00 PM
Iowa (41) at Michigan (6), Saturday, 2:30 PM
Illinois (22) at Ohio State (36), Saturday, 11:00 AM
Oklahoma State (15) at West Virginia (41), Saturday, 6:00 PM
Texas A&M (62) at LSU (9), Saturday, 6:30 PM
Oregon (41) at USC (20), Saturday, 6:30 PM
Boise State (28) at Western Michigan (28), Saturday, 2:30 PM
Wake Forest (62) at Louisville (11), Saturday, 11:00 AM
Clemson (36) at California (28), Friday, 9:30 PM

The top game pairs the No. 1 team in the ratings against the No. 6 team, and Ole Miss has the third-toughest remaining schedule, so the result will move both numbers for weeks. Texas A&M at LSU is the sequel to the A&M question above.

For the full weekend, watch for Friday’s Weekend Viewing Guide. It breaks the slate into time windows and lists the top four games in each one.

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Written by Bob Sloop

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College Football

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Bob Sloop