Detroit hands Minnesota its first loss, and Denver moves to the top

The Precedent: NFL

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Week 8 recap

Minnesota came into the week as the last unbeaten team and No. 1 in The Precedent Ratings. It left 6-1. Detroit won 19-15 at Ford Field, taking the lead for good on Jared Goff's touchdown pass to Jameson Williams after the Vikings had moved in front in the fourth quarter. Jahmyr Gibbs ran for 153 yards. The Lions, 12th in The Precedent Ratings a week ago, are now fifth.

Denver's win over Kansas City came down to one snap. The Chiefs led by 11 going into the fourth quarter, and the Broncos scored 15 points in it to go ahead 28-24. Kansas City drove back to the 1, and on fourth-and-goal Patrick Mahomes found Rashee Rice in the end zone. A false start on lineman Jaylon Moore took it away. From the 6, Mahomes was sacked to end the game. Kansas City has lost two in a row and sits 11th in The Precedent Ratings. Denver is 6-2, leads the AFC West and is the new No. 1.

Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 16-0 in the rain without completing a pass. Baker Mayfield threw three times, none caught, and the Buccaneers ran for 324 yards. No NFL team had won a game without a completion since the 1974 Buffalo Bills. Both teams are 3-5, and Tampa Bay moved from 21st to 18th while Atlanta fell from 15th to 19th.

Baltimore's day ended almost as soon as it started. Lamar Jackson, back after missing three games, hurt his right thumb on the Ravens' first offensive snap at Buffalo. He needs surgery and goes on injured reserve, and Baltimore's coach called the injury potentially season-ending. Tyler Huntley played the rest of the way. The Bills led by nine at halftime and pulled away to win 36-10, their sixth win in seven games.

Cincinnati gave up 36 points to a 1-7 team and still won. The Bengals spent the afternoon chasing the Titans, came back twice in the fourth quarter to force overtime, and won 43-36 when Joe Burrow ran in from nine yards on the first possession. Burrow threw for 462 yards and five touchdowns, along with three interceptions.

Arizona was down 17-3 at Dallas when Gardner Minshew replaced Jacoby Brissett. Minshew completed 17 of 23 passes for three touchdowns, the last one tying the game in the final seconds. Chad Ryland missed the extra point that would have won it, then kicked a 42-yard field goal in overtime for a 33-30 win. Both teams are 3-5.

Pittsburgh had little trouble with Cleveland, holding the Browns to six points in a 27-6 win. The Steelers are 6-2 and have won four straight. Chicago closed the week Monday night with a 34-17 win in Seattle, with D'Andre Swift running for three touchdowns.

The Ratings

Denver is No. 1 in The Precedent Ratings at .407, up from second. Buffalo and Minnesota share No. 2 at .388, San Francisco is fourth and Detroit fifth. Chicago and Pittsburgh are tied for sixth, followed by Jacksonville, New England and Green Bay.

Detroit made the biggest climb, from 12th to fifth, and Buffalo went from seventh to a tie for second. Both added a win over a team that came into the week with a winning record, which lifted their own records and the records of the teams they have played at the same time.

Winning wasn't always enough to hold a place. Jacksonville beat Indianapolis 42-7 and still dropped from fourth to eighth, and New England fell from sixth to ninth after a 24-19 win at 1-6 Miami. A win over a team with a poor record adds to a team's own record but can pull down the records of the teams it has played. Chicago started the week third and is sixth even after Monday's win, and Atlanta and Cleveland each dropped after losses.

The gaps between The Precedent Ratings and the standings tell their own story. The NY Giants are 4-2-1, 11th in the league by record, and 20th in The Precedent Ratings. Cincinnati is seventh by record and 13th in the Ratings, and Kansas City is seventh by record and 11th. Carolina runs the other way, 19th by record at 3-4 and 16th in The Precedent Ratings.

The playoff picture

Buffalo holds the AFC's top seed at 6-1, with Denver second and Pittsburgh third. Denver is ahead of Pittsburgh on conference record. Jacksonville leads the AFC South at 5-2 for the fourth seed. The wild cards are Kansas City, Cincinnati and New England, with Kansas City ahead of Cincinnati on conference record and New England ahead of Cleveland for the last spot. Cleveland, Las Vegas and Baltimore are the first three teams outside.

In the NFC, San Francisco has the top seed over Minnesota, both at 6-1, on strength of victory. The NY Giants lead the NFC East at 4-2-1 and Carolina leads the NFC South at 3-4, so both hold home seeds while ranking 20th and 16th in The Precedent Ratings. The NFC North fills all three wild cards. Chicago is fifth, Detroit sixth and Green Bay seventh. Seattle and the LA Rams, both 4-4, are next in line, with Seattle ahead on division record.

Looking ahead

The best game of Week 9 by The Precedent's ranks closes it. Buffalo plays at Minnesota on Monday night at 7:15 PM on ESPN and ABC. The teams are tied for No. 2 in The Precedent Ratings, both at 6-1, and they hold the top seed in the AFC and the second seed in the NFC.

Sunday at 3:25 PM on Fox, Green Bay visits New England, a meeting of two teams holding the seventh seed in their conferences, ninth and 10th in The Precedent Ratings. Earlier in the day, No. 1 Denver goes to Carolina at noon on CBS, where the NFC South leader is 3-4. Sunday night at 7:20 PM on NBC, Chicago hosts Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers trying to stay in the race at 3-5.

The week starts Thursday at 7:15 PM on Prime Video with Jacksonville at Baltimore, the Ravens' first game without Jackson. Cincinnati and Atlanta meet Sunday morning at 8:30 AM Central at the Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, on NFL Network.

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The full Precedent Ratings for every team and the standings, updated every morning: NFL Ratings · NFL Standings and playoff picture