Buffalo shuts down Minnesota, and the NFC North owns the wild cards
Monday night belonged to the Bills' defense, Green Bay put 45 on New England, and three NFC North teams hold the NFC's wild-card spots.
The Precedent: NFL
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Week 9 recap
The week's biggest game came last. Buffalo and Minnesota entered Monday night tied for second in The Precedent Ratings: the league's top scoring offense against its top scoring defense. The defense that won the night was Buffalo's. The Vikings kicked two field goals in the first half and never scored again. The Bills took the lead for good when Josh Allen found tight end Keleki Latu for a 25-yard touchdown with 44 seconds left before halftime, and James Cook put it away in the fourth quarter. Cook carried 31 times for 107 yards. Buffalo won 23-6 and is 7-1.
Buffalo has scored all season, 32.0 points a game, the most in the league. My take on the Bills has been that the defense is the question, and the numbers back me up: before Monday, five of their seven opponents had scored 29 or more. Holding Minnesota to six moved Buffalo to 23.4 points allowed a game, 16th in the league.
That raises an old question: can a great offense win it all with an ordinary defense? History says it has happened, but not often. The 2009 Saints won the Super Bowl with a defense that ranked 20th in points allowed. The 2011 Giants were the first team to reach the Super Bowl after allowing more points than they scored in the regular season, with a defense in the bottom 10 in points allowed. The closest match to this year's Bills lost: the 2016 Falcons led the league in scoring, ranked 27th in points allowed and fell to New England 34-28 in overtime in the Super Bowl. Last season's champion went the other way. Seattle allowed the fewest points in the league and beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX.
Green Bay had the week's biggest scoring day. The Packers had 42 points by the end of the third quarter and won 45-27 at New England, a season high. Is any offense more fun to watch right now than Green Bay? Over their last five games the Packers have averaged 28.6 points, after 18.3 a game in their first four, and they've won five of their last six. That stretch came against Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Carolina and New England, a combined 25-18.
Cincinnati is on a run of its own. The Bengals took control with 17 points in the second quarter and beat Atlanta 34-17 for their fourth straight win. In three games since their week 6 bye they have scored 35, 43 and 34, and they average 30.0 points a game, second in the NFL. I see an offense that has turned it on. The opponents in the four-game streak, Miami, Baltimore, Tennessee and Atlanta, are a combined 9-25.
Jacksonville opened the week with a 33-10 win at Baltimore on Thursday night and was never threatened after building a two-touchdown lead in the first half. On Monday the Jaguars traded for defensive tackle Jordan Davis, safety Jessie Bates III and defensive tackle Davon Godchaux.
Denver kept the top spot the hard way. Carolina led by a point entering the fourth quarter, and the Broncos scored 13 in the last quarter to win 26-21. Chicago led Tampa Bay by 11 after three quarters and held on, 27-24, after the Buccaneers scored 11 in the fourth. New Orleans beat Cleveland 23-22, answering a Browns touchdown in overtime with one of its own. San Francisco beat Las Vegas 38-17 to reach 7-1, and Kansas City fell behind the NY Jets early, then shut them out after halftime and won 35-12.
The Ratings
Denver is No. 1 in The Precedent Ratings at 7-2, with a Rating of .426. Buffalo is right behind at .424, then Minnesota (.386), San Francisco (.382) and Jacksonville (.364). Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and New England round out the top 10.
New Orleans had the week's biggest climb, from 23rd to 17th, with the overtime win. The NY Giants, 5-2-1 after a 19-11 win at Philadelphia, rose from 20th to 16th. Jacksonville moved from eighth to fifth and Cincinnati from 13th to 11th.
Carolina fell the furthest, from 16th to 20th, after its loss to Denver. Atlanta, Cleveland and Tampa Bay each dropped three places. Pittsburgh had the week off and slipped from sixth to eighth.
Several teams' records tell a different story than The Precedent Ratings. Kansas City is 6-2, fifth-best by record, but 12th in the Ratings. Cincinnati, also 6-2, is 11th. Chicago is 7-2, third-best by record, and seventh in the Ratings. Dallas is 4-5, 17th by record, and 25th in the Ratings. In each case the difference is the records of the teams they have played.
The playoff picture
Buffalo holds the AFC's top seed at 7-1, with Denver second, Jacksonville third and Pittsburgh fourth as division leaders. Kansas City, Cincinnati and New England hold the wild cards. Kansas City is ahead of Cincinnati on conference record, and New England is ahead of 5-4 Cleveland on conference record for the last spot. Las Vegas and Baltimore, both 4-5, are next.
| Seed | Team | Div | W | L | Rating | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo | East | 7 | 1 | 0.424 | 2 |
| 2 | Denver | West | 7 | 2 | 0.426 | 1 |
| 3 | Jacksonville | South | 6 | 2 | 0.364 | 5 |
| 4 | Pittsburgh | North | 6 | 2 | 0.343 | 8 |
| 5 | Kansas City | West | 6 | 2 | 0.300 | 12 |
| 6 | Cincinnati | North | 6 | 2 | 0.302 | 11 |
| 7 | New England | East | 5 | 4 | 0.317 | 10 |
| 8 | Cleveland | North | 5 | 4 | 0.252 | 15 |
| 9 | Las Vegas | West | 4 | 5 | 0.213 | 19 |
| 10 | Baltimore | North | 4 | 5 | 0.216 | 18 |
Seeds by the NFL's tiebreakers. Gold lines: under the division leaders and under the last playoff spot. Rating and Rank are The Precedent's.
San Francisco leads the NFC at 7-1, ahead of Chicago, the NY Giants and Carolina, which leads the NFC South at 3-5. All three NFC wild cards belong to the NFC North: Detroit, Minnesota and Green Bay. Detroit is ahead of Minnesota on head-to-head. Seattle and the LA Rams, both 5-4, are the first teams out.
| Seed | Team | Div | W | L | T | Rating | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco | West | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0.382 | 4 |
| 2 | Chicago | North | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0.345 | 7 |
| 3 | NY Giants | East | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0.238 | 16 |
| 4 | Carolina | South | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0.206 | 20 |
| 5 | Detroit | North | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0.347 | 6 |
| 6 | Minnesota | North | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0.386 | 3 |
| 7 | Green Bay | North | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0.334 | 9 |
| 8 | Seattle | West | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0.292 | 13 |
| 9 | LA Rams | West | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0.278 | 14 |
| 10 | Dallas | East | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0.176 | 25 |
Seeds by the NFL's tiebreakers. Gold lines: under the division leaders and under the last playoff spot. Rating and Rank are The Precedent's.
Looking ahead
The NFC North meets itself again on Sunday. Minnesota, third in The Precedent Ratings, visits ninth-ranked Green Bay at noon on Fox, the NFC's sixth seed against its seventh. Minnesota won the first meeting 39-22 in week 1. For Green Bay's offense, it is the league's top scoring defense.
The day starts early in Munich, where New England, 10th, plays sixth-ranked Detroit at 8:30 AM on Fox. Both hold wild cards right now.
Sunday night brings Pittsburgh, eighth, to Cincinnati, 11th, at 7:20 PM on NBC: the AFC North leader against the sixth seed, both 6-2. Pittsburgh won the first meeting 30-27 in week 3, and the Bengals bring their four-game winning streak.
San Francisco, the NFC's top seed, plays at Dallas at 3:25 PM on Fox, and Seattle visits Las Vegas at 3:05 PM on CBS, two teams just outside the playoff field. Buffalo goes to the NY Jets at noon on CBS. The week opens Thursday night with Washington at the NFC East-leading NY Giants at 7:15 PM on Prime Video.
The full Precedent Ratings for every team, the standings and the schedule, updated every morning:
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