Notre Dame Knocks Off Miami, and Two Teams Are Left Perfect

The Precedent: College Football

Every league's Ratings on one page, and how The Precedent Rating works: theprecedentmedia.com/ratings

For college football news and my thoughts on it, catch the latest video available every Sunday night on the Precedent Media YouTube channel.

A quick note on the numbers. Every team rank in this article comes from The Precedent Ratings, which count each team's wins, losses and its opponents' records, with the AP Poll used only for comparison. Teams with the same rating share a rank. Statistics use FBS-vs-FBS games only, and early in the season many teams are still tied, so read the lower ranks loosely.

Weekend Recap

Home teams won only 27 of 62 games this week, 44 percent, the lowest share of the season by a wide margin; through nine weeks they had won 63 percent. Alabama won at LSU, Oregon at Ohio State, Georgia at Ole Miss, Texas at Missouri, UCLA at Minnesota and Michigan State at Michigan. The biggest home win belonged to Notre Dame, which handed Miami (FL) its first loss.

By the numbers

62 games played, the most of any week this season
Home teams won 27 of 62 (44 percent), against a season average of 63 percent, with one more at a neutral site
27 one-score games (44 percent; the season average is 40 percent)
54.6 points per game, combined, against a season average of 52.2
2 unbeaten teams remain, Utah and UCLA, down from 3
1 team is still winless, Northern Illinois
7 games were won by the team trailing at halftime, and 8 by the team trailing entering the fourth quarter
2 games went to overtime

Notre Dame 31, Miami (FL) 24

Notre Dame controlled the first half and was up 17-3 at the break, and Miami spent the rest of the night chasing. The Hurricanes, playing their first game without injured receiver Malachi Toney, got within a touchdown, and Luke Talich broke up what would have been the tying pass in the end zone. Notre Dame, a 7-point favorite, won by exactly 7. It jumped from #34 to #16 in The Precedent Ratings and moved from #4 to #3 in the AP. Miami stays #1 here, its Rating up to 0.512 because the teams it has played had a good week, while it fell from #1 to #5 in the AP.

Utah 28, BYU 20

Utah scored two touchdowns before BYU found its footing, then gave up the rest of the first half and went to the locker room behind. The second half belonged to the Utah defense, which held BYU scoreless and finished with four interceptions of Bear Bachmeier, the last on third-and-goal from the 2 late in the fourth quarter. Utah, a 4.5-point favorite, covered and stays perfect at 9-0. It rose from #9 to #5 in The Precedent Ratings and from #3 to #2 in the AP, while BYU slipped from #5 to #7 here and from #7 to #12 in the AP.

Oregon 41, Ohio State 28

Ohio State scored the first two touchdowns in Columbus, and then Oregon scored the next 38 points. The Ducks, still without quarterback Dante Moore, have won two straight since he was lost for the season, and Ohio State again played without its starting quarterback. Oregon won outright as a 7.5-point underdog, climbed from #12 to #6 in The Precedent Ratings and entered the AP Poll at #18. Ohio State fell from #11 to #17 here and from #11 to #21 in the AP.

Alabama 31, LSU 13

This was a one-score game for three quarters, and Alabama took it over in the fourth with two touchdowns while its defense shut LSU out. Keelon Russell hurt his ankle in the third quarter, came back with it taped and finished with three touchdown passes. Alabama won outright as a 6-point underdog and rose from #8 to #3 in The Precedent Ratings and from #9 to #7 in the AP. LSU fell from #6 to #18 here and from #15 to #24 in the AP.

Texas 34, Missouri 20

The game was tied entering the fourth quarter in Columbia, and Texas scored the only points after that, two touchdowns in the final period. Arch Manning completed 28 of 38 passes for 297 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover. Texas, a 2.5-point favorite, covered and moved from #3 to #2 in The Precedent Ratings and from #10 to #8 in the AP. Missouri fell from #27 to #48 here and out of the AP Poll from #19.

Georgia 42, Ole Miss 7

Georgia had this one settled by halftime in Oxford, and Ole Miss didn't score until the fourth quarter. Gunner Stockton accounted for five touchdowns, and Georgia gained 482 yards. As a 3.5-point favorite, Georgia beat the line by 31.5 points. It rose from #16 to #8 in The Precedent Ratings and to #1 in the AP, while Ole Miss slipped from #15 to #19 here and from #12 to #19 in the AP.

Tennessee 34, Kentucky 6

Tennessee held only a one-score lead after three quarters, then scored 21 points in the fourth. Tennessee was a 5.5-point favorite at home and covered with room to spare. It climbed from #30 to #15 in The Precedent Ratings and from #16 to #9 in the AP. Kentucky, #4 here a week ago, fell to #10, and from #8 to #13 in the AP.

Texas Tech 53, West Virginia 48

Texas Tech had a comfortable lead at the break, and West Virginia erased it with 21 unanswered points after halftime. Thomas Castellanos threw five touchdown passes, the last one for the lead with about two minutes left, and a sack for a safety on West Virginia's final drive closed it out. Texas Tech, a 16.5-point favorite, didn't cover. It moved from #14 to #12 in The Precedent Ratings and from #13 to #10 in the AP, and it is 8-1 and 5-1 in the Big 12.

Arizona 29, TCU 28

TCU went ahead by eight with under seven minutes left, and Arizona answered with a touchdown with 1:45 to go but missed the two-point try. Ian French's pooch onside kick floated over TCU's front line and Arizona recovered, and Michael Salgado-Medina's 37-yard field goal with 39 seconds left won it. Arizona, a 7.5-point favorite, didn't cover. It slipped from #31 to #36 in The Precedent Ratings and moved from #24 to #22 in the AP; TCU is 4-5.

Michigan State 15, Michigan 6

Michigan didn't score until the fourth quarter, and by then Michigan State had built its lead one field goal at a time. Liam Boyd made five field goals, and the Spartans forced four turnovers and had five sacks. Michigan State, which came in winless in the Big Ten, won outright as a 14-point underdog, the second-largest upset of the week. It climbed from #102 to #78 in The Precedent Ratings, and Michigan fell from #38 to #60.

UCLA 34, Minnesota 20

Minnesota tied it late in the third quarter, and UCLA broke the game open in the fourth on two 75-yard touchdown passes from Ty Dieffenbach to Aidan Mizell. Dieffenbach has been the starter for about a month, since Nico Iamaleava was hurt. UCLA, a 4-point favorite in an 11:00 AM Central kickoff, covered and is 9-0. It rose from #23 to #14 in The Precedent Ratings and from #5 to #4 in the AP.

Other results: Houston beat Cincinnati 31-24 but didn't cover as a 10.5-point favorite, and moved up to #4. South Carolina scored the last 10 points to beat Texas A&M 17-9. Oklahoma won 23-7 at Florida as a 5.5-point underdog in Jason Witten's first game calling its plays. Boise State won its eighth straight, 64-38 at Colorado State, with backup quarterback Max Cutforth throwing for 317 yards and four touchdowns. SMU beat Virginia Tech 51-28, Florida State won 31-24 at Boston College in its first game under interim coach Rick Stockstill, Iowa won 24-10 at Northwestern, and Air Force beat Army 24-21. Tulsa beat Tulane 60-10 as a 3-point favorite.

The biggest deficits overcome, measured at the end of a quarter

Oregon over Ohio State, 41-28, after trailing by 14
Baylor over Iowa State, 42-31, after trailing by 10
Florida State over Boston College, 31-24, after trailing by 10
Buffalo over Miami (OH), 34-31 (OT), after trailing by 8
Auburn over Arkansas, 26-23, after trailing by 7
East Carolina over South Florida, 20-17, after trailing by 7

Teams that trailed entering the fourth quarter and won

Buffalo over Miami (OH) (down 8)
Texas Tech over West Virginia (down 7)
Arizona over TCU (down 4)
Air Force over Army (down 4)
Auburn over Arkansas (down 4)
Florida State over Boston College (down 3)
South Carolina over Texas A&M (down 2)
Kennesaw State over Delaware (down 1)

Of the 62 games with a line, favorites won 41 and covered 28, and one pushed.

Underdogs that won outright

ULM over Arkansas State, 19-17 (14.5)
Michigan State over Michigan, 15-6 (14.0)
Oregon over Ohio State, 41-28 (7.5)
Florida Atlantic over UTSA, 60-29 (7.0)
Georgia State over Appalachian State, 39-23 (6.5)
Old Dominion over Coastal Carolina, 21-8 (6.5)
Alabama over LSU, 31-13 (6.0)
Buffalo over Miami (OH), 34-31 (6.0)
Texas State over Oregon State, 42-21 (6.0)
Oklahoma over Florida, 23-7 (5.5)
Illinois over Nebraska, 24-13 (4.5)
Maryland over Purdue, 34-29 (4.5)
Air Force over Army, 24-21 (4.0)
Wyoming over UNLV, 41-35 (4.0)
UCF over Kansas, 33-32 (3.5)
Vanderbilt over Mississippi State, 25-23 (3.0)
Middle Tennessee over Western Kentucky, 51-42 (2.5)
Penn State over Washington, 28-25 (2.5)
Central Michigan over Eastern Michigan, 35-7 (1.5)
Kennesaw State over Delaware, 42-40 (1.5)
Utah State over Fresno State, 17-10 (1.5)

Favorites that fell furthest short of the line

UTSA, favored by 7.0, lost by 31 (38.0 short)
Eastern Michigan, favored by 1.5, lost by 28 (29.5 short)
Oregon State, favored by 6.0, lost by 21 (27.0 short)
LSU, favored by 6.0, lost by 18 (24.0 short)
Michigan, favored by 14.0, lost by 9 (23.0 short)

Favorites that beat the line by the most

Tulsa, favored by 3.0 over Tulane, won by 50 (47.0 better)
Duke, favored by 4.0 over NC State, won by 38 (34.0 better)
Georgia, favored by 3.5 over Ole Miss, won by 35 (31.5 better)
Oklahoma State, favored by 6.5 over Kansas State, won by 38 (31.5 better)
Georgia Southern, favored by 8.5 over Marshall, won by 36 (27.5 better)

Rankings Talk

Biggest gap with the AP Poll

Notre Dame is #3 in the AP Poll and #16 in The Precedent Ratings. It is 8-1 with an average scoring margin of more than three touchdowns, but its FBS opponents are a combined 32-41. Beating Miami (FL) moved it up 18 places this week; before that, its best results were against Wisconsin and North Carolina, and Rice, Purdue and Navy have won four FBS games between them.

Oregon is #6 in The Precedent Ratings and #18 in the AP. It is 6-3 with an average scoring margin of +3.0, but its FBS opponents are a combined 48-19. Its three losses came against unbeaten UCLA, Illinois and Oklahoma State, and it has played Boise State, USC and now Ohio State too.

There are 106 distinct ratings among 138 teams, down from 108 a week ago, and 6 teams remain at 0.000. Miami (FL) leads at 0.512, followed by Texas at 0.471, and only 0.018 separates #2 Texas from #5 Utah.

The week's story is where the top teams come from. The SEC has eight teams in The Precedent's top 25, the Big Ten seven and the Big 12 four, with six other conferences (counting the independents) holding one each. The Big 12 has three of the top 10 (Houston, Utah and BYU) to the Big Ten's two (Oregon and Indiana), and in the top 15 the two have four apiece. The Big 12's top-25 teams average a rank of 7.0, against 12.5 for the SEC and 14.3 for the Big Ten.

Biggest risers

Notre Dame, #34 to #16. It beat Miami (FL), and its opponents' combined record improved from 21-37 to 32-41.
Florida Atlantic, #91 to #61. It won 60-29 at UTSA, which came in 6-1 against FBS teams.
Tennessee, #30 to #15. It beat Kentucky, and its opponents' combined record moved above .500.
Navy, #123 to #107. It won a game, and the teams it has played still have a winning record.
Kennesaw State, #127 to #114. It beat Delaware for its second win over an FBS team.
Buffalo, #75 to #49. It won in overtime at Miami (OH), and its opponents' record reached .500.

Biggest fallers

Florida, #17 to #30. It lost 23-7 at home to Oklahoma, its fourth loss.
LSU, #6 to #18. It lost at home to Alabama, its third loss.
Cincinnati, #20 to #35. It lost at Houston, its fourth loss and second in a row.
Missouri, #27 to #48. It lost at home to Texas, and its opponents' combined record fell further below .500.
Tulane, #62 to #80. It lost 60-10 at home to Tulsa.
Michigan, #38 to #60. It lost at home to Michigan State, which had not won a Big Ten game.

Liberty has the third-best scoring margin in the country, +22.1 a game, and sits at #51 because only one team has played an easier schedule. Kentucky is the opposite case near the top, #10 in The Precedent Ratings with a scoring margin that ranks 64th, and Oregon at #6 ranks 54th.

Notre Dame, UCLA and Wake Forest are well higher in the AP than here. Going the other way, Oregon and Houston are in The Precedent's top six and in the AP's teens, and North Dakota State and Wisconsin are tied at #20 here without an AP vote.

The Rankings

Teams with the same rating share a rank and are listed alphabetically.

The full Precedent Ratings for every team and the conference standings, updated every morning: College Football Ratings · College Football Standings

The SEC (0.339), Big Ten (0.306) and Big 12 (0.296) hold the top three spots again. The independents moved past the ACC into fourth, and the Mountain West climbed into a tie with the American for seventh.

Loose Ends

Notre Dame's CJ Carr threw for 319 yards and three touchdowns against Miami (FL).
Dylan Riley ran for 192 yards for Boise State in the win at Colorado State.
Northwestern played Iowa without starting quarterback Aidan Chiles, who was ruled out with an upper-body injury.
Michigan's freshman quarterback Tommy Carr threw two interceptions against Michigan State.
Florida State's win at Boston College ended a 12-game road losing streak.
Air Force's win at Army clinched the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, its first since 2022.
LSU coach Lane Kiffin is now 0-6 against Alabama.
Maryland beat Purdue 34-29 for its first Big Ten win of the season.
Florida has played the toughest schedule so far and UMass the easiest. Baylor has the toughest remaining schedule, and North Dakota State, at #20, has one of the three easiest.
Utah and UCLA are the only unbeaten teams left, and they don't play each other.

Looking Ahead

There are no unbeaten-versus-unbeaten games next week. Utah plays at Arizona, the team that beat TCU on Friday, and UCLA hosts Illinois on Friday night.

Top games for next week by The Precedent Ratings: