Week 8 - Three Unbeatens Fell, and Indiana Took Over #1

The Weekend Precedent: College Football

For college football news and my thoughts on it, catch the latest video available every Wednesday night on the Precedent Media YouTube channel.

A quick note on the numbers. Every team rank in this article comes from The Precedent Ratings, which count each team's wins, losses and its opponents' records, with the AP Poll used only for comparison. Teams with the same rating share a rank. Statistics use FBS-vs-FBS games only, and early in the season many teams are still tied, so read the lower ranks loosely.

Weekend Recap

Six teams entered the week unbeaten, and three of them lost. James Madison fell in overtime at Appalachian State on Thursday, then Texas Tech lost at Cincinnati and BYU lost in double overtime at UCF on Saturday. All three were road favorites by 7.5 points or more. Miami (FL), Utah and UCLA are the only unbeaten teams left, and Indiana, after a 13-6 overtime win at Michigan, is the new #1 in The Precedent Ratings.

By the numbers

56 games played
Home teams won 38 of 56 (68 percent), against a season average of 62 percent
30 one-score games (54 percent, the highest share of any week this season; the season average is 38 percent)
54.6 points per game, combined, against a season average of 52.0
3 unbeaten teams remain, down from 6 a week ago
1 team is still winless, Northern Illinois
14 games were won by the team trailing at halftime, and 14 by the team trailing entering the fourth quarter
5 games went to overtime

UCF 39, BYU 31 (2OT)

BYU led 7-0 after one quarter, UCF led 17-14 at halftime and 24-21 after three, and a BYU field goal was the only score of the fourth quarter, sending it to overtime at 24-24. Backup quarterback Keyone Jenkins threw the winning 2-yard touchdown in the second overtime, one of his three touchdown passes, and BYU's last drive stopped at the UCF 4. UCF won outright as a 7.5-point home underdog. BYU fell from #1 to #6 in The Precedent Ratings and from #2 to #8 in the AP Poll, and UCF rose from #62 to #45.

Cincinnati 37, Texas Tech 24

Texas Tech led 6-3 after the first quarter before Cincinnati scored 21 straight points in the second to lead 24-6 at halftime. Cincinnati led by 16 after three quarters, and JC French IV threw four touchdown passes. As an 11.5-point underdog, Cincinnati beat the line by 24.5 points. It jumped from #32 to #11 in The Precedent Ratings but remains outside the AP top 25, while Texas Tech fell from #11 to #15 here and from #8 to #13 in the AP.

Indiana 13, Michigan 6 (OT)

Indiana led 6-0 at halftime, and Michigan kicked two second-half field goals to tie it 6-6 and force overtime. Josh Hoover's 4-yard run in overtime was the only touchdown of the game, and Indiana's defense held Michigan's freshman quarterback Tommy Carr, making his first career start, out of the end zone. It was Indiana's first win at Michigan Stadium since 1967. Indiana moved from #4 to #1 in The Precedent Ratings and from #6 to #4 in the AP, and Michigan slipped from #34 to #38.

Texas 34, Ole Miss 27

Texas led 24-3 at halftime. Ole Miss scored 14 points in the third quarter, the first on a sack and fumble of Arch Manning recovered in the end zone, and erased the rest of the lead in the fourth before Manning's 1-yard run in the final three minutes put Texas ahead to stay. Texas, a 3-point favorite, covered. It rose from #8 to #2 in The Precedent Ratings because it has now played the toughest schedule in the country, and from #19 to #11 in the AP. Ole Miss moved from #15 to #16 here and from #7 to #12 in the AP.

Utah 21, Houston 13

Houston led 3-0 at halftime and 13-7 after three quarters, and Utah scored the last 14 points, both touchdowns by quarterback Devon Dampier. Utah, a 6.5-point favorite, covered by a point and a half. It jumped from #43 to #18 in The Precedent Ratings, the result of beating a team that was #3, and from #10 to #6 in the AP. Houston fell from #3 to #5 here and from #14 to #18 in the AP.

Wisconsin 24, USC 7

The game was tied 7-7 at halftime, and Wisconsin shut USC out in the second half while scoring a touchdown in each of the final two quarters. Wisconsin intercepted Jayden Maiava twice and held USC to minus 17 rushing yards. As a 3-point underdog, it won outright. Wisconsin rose from #26 to #13 in The Precedent Ratings and entered the AP Poll at #25, and USC fell from #13 to #21 here and out of the AP top 25.

Illinois 21, Oregon 10

Oregon led 10-7 at halftime, and Illinois scored a touchdown in each of the last two quarters and held Oregon scoreless after the break. Illinois was a 10-point underdog. Oregon, which had played the toughest schedule in the country through last week, fell from #5 to #20 in The Precedent Ratings with its third loss. Illinois rose from #82 to #60.

LSU 38, Auburn 17

LSU led 31-10 at halftime, and the second half was even at 7-7. Sam Leavitt threw for 387 yards and three touchdowns. LSU covered a 7-point line by 14, moved from #9 to #7 in The Precedent Ratings and from #18 to #15 in the AP. Auburn, a week after winning at Georgia, fell from #23 to #37.

Other results: Appalachian State beat James Madison 34-31 in overtime on Thursday as an 11.5-point underdog, after James Madison led 21-13 entering the fourth quarter; James Madison stays #14 in The Precedent Ratings. Miami (FL) beat Pittsburgh 52-23 in its first game atop the AP Poll since the 2002 season, but did not cover a 20.5-point line. South Carolina beat Tennessee 27-24 on a field goal as time expired, Minnesota beat Iowa 13-10 as a 7.5-point underdog, and Syracuse beat North Carolina 31-30 in overtime as a 9.5-point underdog. Alabama trailed Texas A&M 20-17 entering the fourth quarter and won 31-20. UCLA beat Michigan State 28-10 to stay unbeaten, and Kentucky beat Vanderbilt 34-17.

The biggest deficits overcome, measured at the end of a quarter

Memphis over East Carolina, 41-34 (OT), after trailing by 13
Kansas over Baylor, 25-24, after trailing by 11
Boston College over Georgia Tech, 49-27, after trailing by 10
Syracuse over North Carolina, 31-30 (OT), after trailing by 10
Appalachian State over James Madison, 34-31 (OT), after trailing by 8
Delaware over Missouri State, 61-38, after trailing by 7

Teams that trailed entering the fourth quarter and won

Kansas over Baylor (down 11)
Syracuse over North Carolina (down 10)
Appalachian State over James Madison (down 8)
So. Mississippi over Louisiana (down 7)
Utah over Houston (down 6)
Virginia Tech over Clemson (down 6)
Memphis over East Carolina (down 4)
South Carolina over Tennessee (down 4)
ULM over Troy (down 4)
Alabama over Texas A&M (down 3)
Arizona State over Kansas State (down 3)
Duke over Virginia (down 3)
Miami (OH) over Central Michigan (down 3)
West Virginia over TCU (down 3)

Of the 56 games with a line, favorites won 34 and covered 27, and none pushed.

Underdogs that won outright

Appalachian State over James Madison, 34-31 (11.5)
Cincinnati over Texas Tech, 37-24 (11.5)
ULM over Troy, 21-14 (11.5)
West Virginia over TCU, 24-20 (10.5)
Illinois over Oregon, 21-10 (10.0)
Middle Tennessee over FIU, 26-23 (10.0)
So. Mississippi over Louisiana, 35-31 (10.0)
Syracuse over North Carolina, 31-30 (9.5)
Minnesota over Iowa, 13-10 (7.5)
UCF over BYU, 39-31 (7.5)
Stanford over NC State, 31-28 (6.5)
Boston College over Georgia Tech, 49-27 (6.0)
Wyoming over Air Force, 28-14 (5.5)
Marshall over South Alabama, 20-13 (3.0)
Wisconsin over USC, 24-7 (3.0)
Arkansas State over Georgia State, 38-32 (2.5)
Duke over Virginia, 19-16 (2.5)
Virginia Tech over Clemson, 20-16 (2.5)
Arizona State over Kansas State, 28-17 (1.5)
Army over Tulsa, 38-35 (1.5)
Colorado State over San Diego State, 56-49 (1.5)
Kansas over Baylor, 25-24 (1.5)

Favorites that fell furthest short of the line

Georgia Tech, favored by 6.0, lost by 22 (28.0 short)
Texas Tech, favored by 11.5, lost by 13 (24.5 short)
Oregon, favored by 10.0, lost by 11 (21.0 short)
USC, favored by 3.0, lost by 17 (20.0 short)
Air Force, favored by 5.5, lost by 14 (19.5 short)

Favorites that beat the line by the most

Hawaii, favored by 3.5 over Northern Illinois, won by 35 (31.5 better)
Arizona, favored by 10.5 over Iowa State, won by 36 (25.5 better)
SMU, favored by 18.5 over California, won by 39 (20.5 better)
Delaware, favored by 3.0 over Missouri State, won by 23 (20.0 better)
UTSA, favored by 3.0 over Tulane, won by 23 (20.0 better)

Rankings Talk

Biggest gap with the AP Poll

Northwestern is #20 in the AP Poll and #43 in The Precedent Ratings. It is 6-1 with an average scoring margin of +18.5 per game, 10th in the country, but its FBS opponents have a combined record of 15-26, the 95th-ranked schedule so far. Its one loss came at #1 Indiana, and its Big Ten wins are over Penn State, Michigan State and Rutgers, who are a combined 6-15 against FBS teams.

Cincinnati is #11 in The Precedent Ratings and outside the AP top 25. It is 5-2, with an average scoring margin of just +1.8, but its FBS opponents are a combined 24-14. Its losses came at Arizona, now 5-1 against FBS teams, and at West Virginia by 3, and this week it beat a Texas Tech team that was 5-0 against FBS opponents.

The ratings keep spreading out. There are now 106 distinct ratings among 138 teams, up from 99 a week ago, and 8 teams remain at 0.000, down from 10. Indiana leads at 0.506, with Texas at 0.501 and Miami (FL) at 0.500 close behind.

The week's story is how differently the AP and The Precedent read a schedule. Texas has lost twice but has played the toughest schedule in the country, its FBS opponents a combined 33-14, and it is #2 here and #11 in the AP. Notre Dame has the best average scoring margin in the country, +27.7 a game, and is #5 in the AP, but its FBS opponents are 19-27 and it is #23 here. Two of the three unbeatens sit in the same spot. UCLA is 7-0 and #7 in the AP but #24 in The Precedent Ratings, and Utah is #6 in the AP and #18 here. The AP and The Precedent agree on 19 of their 25 ranked teams.

Biggest risers

New Mexico, #93 to #43: It beat North Dakota State, which was 5-1 against FBS teams, 21-16.
Cincinnati, #32 to #11: It beat a Texas Tech team that was 5-0 against FBS opponents.
Kansas, #113 to #89: It came back from 11 points down entering the fourth quarter to beat Baylor 25-24.
Appalachian State, #102 to #74: It handed James Madison its first loss.
Utah, #43 to #18: It beat Houston, which was #3 entering the week.

Biggest fallers

North Carolina, #19 to #53: It lost 31-30 in overtime to Syracuse, which had won one game against an FBS team.
BYU, #1 to #6: It lost 39-31 in double overtime at UCF.
Oregon, #5 to #20: It lost 21-10 at Illinois, its third loss.
Boise State, #7 to #19: It beat Washington State, which has not beaten an FBS team, and the win pulled its opponents' combined record down.
Iowa, #16 to #30: It lost 13-10 at Minnesota.
Louisiana, #34 to #62: It lost 35-31 to So. Mississippi after leading entering the fourth quarter.

Cincinnati is #11 in The Precedent Ratings but #61 in scoring margin, at +1.8 points per game. Liberty has the sixth-best scoring margin in the country, +20.3 a game, but sits at #69 because it has played one of the two easiest schedules.

Cincinnati, James Madison and North Dakota State are all in The Precedent's top 16, and none of them is in the AP top 25. The longest lines going the other way belong to Northwestern and SMU, both ranked 23 spots higher in the AP.

The Rankings

Teams with the same rating share a rank and are listed alphabetically.

The SEC is still the top-rated conference at 0.358, ahead of the Big Ten at 0.317. The Big 12, tied with the Big Ten a week ago, slipped to #3 at 0.308 after losses by BYU, Texas Tech and Houston.

The full Precedent Ratings for every team, updated every morning, are on the College Football Ratings page.

Loose Ends

NC State fired Dave Doeren, its winningest coach, in his 14th season after a 3-4 start and a loss at Stanford. Todd Goebbel is the interim coach.
Michigan started freshman Tommy Carr over Bryce Underwood. Carr completed 20 of 32 passes for 167 yards with an interception and a lost fumble.
Miami (FL) receiver Malachi Toney set a school record with 16 catches against Pittsburgh, for 194 yards and three touchdowns. Darian Mensah threw for 387 yards and four touchdowns.
Wisconsin's win was its first regular-season win over USC, and former USC running back Bryan Jackson scored one of its touchdowns.
UCF's win over BYU was the first over a top-five team in program history, and Cincinnati's was its first home win over an AP top-10 team since 2006.
Texas has played the toughest schedule so far. All five of the toughest remaining schedules belong to SEC teams, led by Missouri, Arkansas and Vanderbilt, and North Dakota State has the easiest.
Three teams are still unbeaten: Miami (FL), UCLA and Utah.